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King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation

1.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.9%Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 50.9%Based on 1.8M games
0%50.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.8% – 50.9%
Outcome Distribution
48.9%3.8%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...d6
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
Analyzen=1.8M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.8% and 50.9%), based on 1.8M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (15,937 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (51,521 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.1% win rate (114,856 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (216,784 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (359,670 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.9% win rate (492,872 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (368,165 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.0% win rate (177,106 games)
  • 2500+: 50.2% win rate (35,494 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.2% win rate (6,062 games)
  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (741,627 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (899,552 games)
  • Rapid: 48.2% win rate (179,602 games)
  • Classical: 48.1% win rate (5,562 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,928 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (7,365 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,602 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (22,198 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (23,063 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (6,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (769 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (47,845 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (51,746 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (14,219 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (277 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (2,061 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (83,030 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (104,418 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (26,316 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (959 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (1,856 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (127,921 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (186,919 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (41,277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (1,697 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (168,449 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (271,265 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (50,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (1,936 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (328 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (152,596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (182,608 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (32,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (579 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (105,038 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (64,407 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (7,542 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (27,622 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (7,761 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Continuations (4)
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Deferred Fianchetto
48.6%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, King's Knight Variation
48.1%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
47.5%
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Standard Development
51.2%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.2% win rate for white (35K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.2%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 217K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 360K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 493K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 368K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 177K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.3%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white (742K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.8%) win rate for white (900K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.4%) win rate for white (180K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.2%) win rate for white (5.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.