TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation

452K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.9%Based on 452K games
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.9%
Outcome Distribution
49.4%4.7%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.h3
King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation
Analyzen=452K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 51.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 51.9%), based on 452K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.3% win rate (903 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.2% win rate (4,448 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.3% win rate (13,323 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.7% win rate (38,970 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (81,792 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (121,647 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (103,971 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.4% win rate (70,020 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (17,195 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in UltraBullet (27%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 27.3% win rate (15 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (96,645 games)
  • Blitz: 49.3% win rate (273,678 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (78,678 games)
  • Classical: 49.8% win rate (3,253 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (485 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (346 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (72 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,150 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (1,925 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (370 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (4,302 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (7,327 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (1,658 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (9,161 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (23,398 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (6,191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (13,228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (51,231 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (16,506 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (826 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (17,737 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (74,377 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (28,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,455 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (18,824 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (65,917 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (18,661 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (568 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (20,503 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (42,488 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (6,888 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (141 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (10,255 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (259 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 452K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (49.8%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 903 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 122K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 104K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white (97K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (274K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.2%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Makogonov Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.