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King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation

5.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.8%Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 54.9%Based on 5.9K games
0%53.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 54.9%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%5.5%43.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Be3
King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=5.9K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 54.9%), based on 5.9K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 61%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.5% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.6% win rate (40 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (171 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (595 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.0% win rate (1,341 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.5% win rate (1,779 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.9% win rate (1,770 games)
  • 2500+: 60.6% win rate (184 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (63%), worst in Rapid (50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 51.1% win rate (2,145 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (3,271 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (453 games)
  • Classical: 62.7% win rate (28 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (215 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (399 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (821 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (113 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (513 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (739 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (945 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (162 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 73.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 60.6% win rate for white (184 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.0%) outperforms Rapid (49.6%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 42.7%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 171 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 43.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 595 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 51.9%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 60.6% (90% CI: 54.7%-66.5%) win rate for white, based on 184 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.9%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.5%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-53.5%) win rate for white (453 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.