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King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation

29K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.9%Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 51.3%Based on 29K games
0%50.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 51.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.4%4.9%46.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation
n=29K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 51.3%), based on 29K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~54%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.5% win rate (91 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.6% win rate (306 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.9% win rate (790 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (1,791 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.3% win rate (3,514 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (6,500 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (8,030 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (6,722 games)
  • 2500+: 54.1% win rate (1,251 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (57%), worst in Rapid (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.5% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (10,536 games)
  • Blitz: 48.2% win rate (15,983 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (2,369 games)
  • Classical: 52.3% win rate (97 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (134 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (127 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (643 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (924 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (211 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,945 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (408 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,054 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (3,764 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (646 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (2,672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (4,723 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (610 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (2,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (3,573 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (335 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (740 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (499 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 29K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Classical (52.3%) by -3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 43.9%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 306 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 790 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.3%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.6%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.8%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.3%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Karlsbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.