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King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.5%Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 54.8%Based on 75K games
0%54.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 54.8%
Outcome Distribution
49.8%9.3%40.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.dxe5
King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=75K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.3%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 54.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.2% and 54.8%), based on 75K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (144 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (440 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (1,071 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (2,841 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (6,183 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (14,448 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (21,430 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (22,945 games)
  • 2500+: 53.6% win rate (5,228 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.7% win rate (22 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (16,944 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (46,197 games)
  • Rapid: 46.4% win rate (10,859 games)
  • Classical: 45.5% win rate (708 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (169 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (363 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (532 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (172 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (698 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,554 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (547 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (3,718 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (9,302 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (2,760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (307 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (3,438 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (14,187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,613 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (188 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (6,042 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (14,751 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (2,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (3,025 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (1,895 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (298 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (5.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (45.5%) by 6.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 38.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 144 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 42.9%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 440 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 13.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.9%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.2%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.2%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 42.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (708 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.7%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.