2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 48.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 50.2%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 40%
Best in Classical (71%), worst in Blitz (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 48.9% win rate for white (460 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (51.7%) outperforms Blitz (44.4%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 44.9% (90% CI: 38.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 169 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 264 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 460 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 42.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 621 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 40.3% (90% CI: 34.8%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 203 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-51.5%) win rate for white (493 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.3%-46.5%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-57.3%) win rate for white (216 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Spanish Defense is slightly favors black with a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.