553 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.3% and 57.3%), based on 553 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 49%
Best in Bullet (59%), worst in Rapid (27%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 553 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (121 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (58.5%) outperforms Blitz (50.7%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 52.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 121 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 45.0%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 293 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-54.7%) win rate for white (439 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Modern Defense, Burgess Line is statistically balanced with a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.