31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 54.0%), based on 31K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 40% → 53%
Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Rapid (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 31K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (9.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (52.7%) by -0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 40.4%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.2%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.9%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.5%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.5%) win rate for white (195 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Geller Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.