2.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 54.4%), based on 2.4K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 52%
Best in Bullet (52%), worst in Classical (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Rapid (46.7%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 92.8 (decisive), meaning 92.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 41.0% (90% CI: 35.5%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 207 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 512 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 266 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.4%) win rate for white (862 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 39.0%-54.4%) win rate for white (111 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.8%.
The King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.