Source Lichess
White isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit keeps White's wins running −14.2% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 1.4K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000-1199 | +11.4% | 62.3% | 4.0% | 33.7% | 86 |
| 1200-1399 | +8.5% | 59.9% | 2.5% | 37.6% | 138 |
| 1400-1599 | −9.6% | 49.8% | 4.7% | 45.5% | 138 |
| 1600-1799 | −8.3% | 53.0% | 0.4% | 46.6% | 122 |
| 1800-1999 | −31.2% | 38.1% | 1.4% | 60.5% | 320 |
| 2000-2199 | −23.2% | 39.7% | 5.9% | 54.4% | 347 |
| 2200-2499 | −47.3% | 28.3% | 7.8% | 63.9% | 159 |
| 2500+ | −71.3% | 20.7% | 4.5% | 74.8% | 54 |
1400-1599 is where the games stop proving it. Below that, White comes out ahead; from there up, the evidence no longer shows it. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
White wins 43.3% of Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit games, draws 3.6% and loses 53.2%. That rests on 1.4K games from Lichess.
1000-1199. There White wins at least 11.4 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Rapid. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −19.2% in Blitz (763 games) and +5.3% in Rapid (360 games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 2200-2499 in Bullet, 1400-1599 in Blitz and 2000-2199 in Rapid.
The Ruy Lopez: Spanish Countergambit, Harding Gambit is extremely sharp: 3.6% of its games are drawn, so 96.4% end with a winner.
Play it below 1400-1599. From there up, the games no longer show it paying. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1400-1599 and above, the games no longer show White coming out ahead with it; below that, they do.
This rests on 1.4K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.