Source Lichess
Black wins at least 6.5 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation keeps Black's wins running +6.5% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 39K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000-1199 | +4.4% | 61.8% | 0.8% | 37.4% | 64 |
| 1200-1399 | +18.3% | 62.6% | 2.0% | 35.3% | 317 |
| 1400-1599 | +20.7% | 61.6% | 2.2% | 36.2% | 1.1K |
| 1600-1799 | +20.9% | 60.1% | 3.3% | 36.6% | 3.7K |
| 1800-1999 | +12.2% | 54.8% | 4.5% | 40.7% | 7.6K |
| 2000-2199 | +4.9% | 50.6% | 5.5% | 43.9% | 7.8K |
| 2200-2499 | +0.1% | 47.5% | 7.7% | 44.8% | 4.4K |
| 2500+ | −1.9% | 3.8% | 91.0% | 5.1% | 14K |
2500+ is where the games stop proving it. Below that, Black comes out ahead; from there up, the evidence no longer shows it. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 35.9% of Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation games, draws 35.5% and loses 28.6%. That rests on 39K games from Lichess.
1600-1799. There Black wins at least 20.9 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
About the same. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +7.7% in Blitz (22K games) and +8.1% in Rapid (4.8K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 2000-2199 in Bullet, 2200-2499 in Blitz, 2200-2499 in Rapid and 2000-2199 in Classical.
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Variation is moderately sharp: 35.5% of its games are drawn, so 64.5% end with a winner.
Play it below 2500+. From there up, the games no longer show it paying. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 2500+ and above, the games no longer show Black coming out ahead with it; below that, they do.
This rests on 39K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.