Source Lichess
Black wins at least 0.6 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation keeps Black's wins running +0.6% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 603 Lichess games. This gambit is playable but marginal. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-2199 | −8.4% | 49.8% | 8.4% | 41.9% | 100 |
| 2200-2499 | −19.3% | 44.8% | 9.2% | 46.0% | 80 |
| 2500+ | +3.9% | 7.5% | 91.8% | 0.7% | 378 |
At some ratings. Black comes out ahead at 2500+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 22.6% of Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation games, draws 60.8% and loses 16.6%. That rests on 603 games from Lichess.
2500+. There Black wins at least 3.9 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
About the same. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −4.0% in Blitz (283 games) and −4.9% in Rapid (63 games). In neither do the games show Black winning more than losing.
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 2000-2199 in Blitz. In Bullet, Black comes out ahead at 2500+, the only rating with enough games.
The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Main Line, Spassky Variation is moderately sharp: 60.8% of its games are drawn, so 39.2% end with a winner.
At 2500+, where Black comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 2500+, Black still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 603 games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.