Source Lichess
Black wins at least 8.0 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation keeps Black's wins running +8.0% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 24K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +2.5% | 53.0% | 1.3% | 45.7% | 1.2K |
| 1000-1199 | +16.3% | 58.7% | 1.7% | 39.6% | 3.2K |
| 1200-1399 | +10.5% | 55.2% | 2.3% | 42.5% | 5.5K |
| 1400-1599 | +7.9% | 53.5% | 2.9% | 43.6% | 6.3K |
| 1600-1799 | +0.0% | 49.8% | 2.8% | 47.4% | 4.5K |
| 1800-1999 | −3.4% | 47.9% | 4.2% | 47.9% | 2.2K |
| 2000-2199 | −5.0% | 48.4% | 3.6% | 48.0% | 910 |
| 2200-2499 | +5.2% | 56.5% | 2.8% | 40.7% | 233 |
At some ratings. Black comes out ahead at 0-1599 and 2200-2499; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 53.2% of Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation games, draws 2.6% and loses 44.2%. That rests on 24K games from Lichess.
1000-1199. There Black wins at least 16.3 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
About the same. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +7.0% in Blitz (12K games) and +6.2% in Rapid (7.1K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 1400-1599 in Classical. In Bullet, Black comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Fishing Pole Variation is extremely sharp: 2.6% of its games are drawn, so 97.4% end with a winner.
At 0-1599 and 2200-2499, where Black comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 0-1599 and 2200-2499, Black still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 24K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.