Source Lichess
Black isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit keeps Black's wins running −2.7% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 19K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000-1199 | +3.7% | 59.5% | 3.3% | 37.3% | 75 |
| 1200-1399 | −2.6% | 52.5% | 1.8% | 45.7% | 306 |
| 1400-1599 | −1.4% | 50.9% | 2.4% | 46.7% | 854 |
| 1600-1799 | −5.0% | 48.4% | 2.0% | 49.6% | 1.9K |
| 1800-1999 | −3.5% | 47.8% | 3.6% | 48.6% | 4.0K |
| 2000-2199 | −6.1% | 45.8% | 4.5% | 49.7% | 5.3K |
| 2200-2499 | −4.3% | 46.1% | 5.9% | 48.0% | 4.9K |
| 2500+ | −4.0% | 36.0% | 27.8% | 36.2% | 1.7K |
1200-1399 is where the games stop proving it. Below that, Black comes out ahead; from there up, the evidence no longer shows it. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 46.1% of Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit games, draws 6.4% and loses 47.6%. That rests on 19K games from Lichess.
1000-1199. There Black wins at least 3.7 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Rapid. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −4.9% in Blitz (11K games) and +7.6% in Rapid (1.9K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 1200-1399 in Bullet, 1200-1399 in Blitz and 1600-1799 in Rapid.
The Réti Opening: Advance Variation, Michel Gambit is very sharp: 6.4% of its games are drawn, so 93.6% end with a winner.
Play it below 1200-1399. From there up, the games no longer show it paying. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1200-1399 and above, the games no longer show Black coming out ahead with it; below that, they do.
This rests on 19K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.