Source Lichess
Black isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit keeps Black's wins running −10.3% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 3.3K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +0.5% | 53.1% | 3.1% | 43.8% | 340 |
| 1000-1199 | −12.3% | 46.9% | 3.7% | 49.4% | 281 |
| 1200-1399 | −21.0% | 38.6% | 10.0% | 51.5% | 394 |
| 1400-1599 | −14.2% | 42.0% | 9.3% | 48.7% | 464 |
| 1600-1799 | −21.2% | 42.2% | 3.7% | 54.1% | 308 |
| 1800-1999 | −16.9% | 43.8% | 3.3% | 52.9% | 438 |
| 2000-2199 | −16.6% | 43.3% | 2.6% | 54.1% | 787 |
| 2200-2499 | −17.1% | 44.1% | 6.0% | 49.9% | 206 |
| 2500+ | −43.0% | 33.9% | 10.1% | 56.0% | 53 |
1000-1199 is where the games stop proving it. Below that, Black comes out ahead; from there up, the evidence no longer shows it. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 43.8% of Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit games, draws 5.0% and loses 51.2%. That rests on 3.3K games from Lichess.
0-999. There Black wins at least 0.5 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
About the same. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −9.5% in Blitz (1.4K games) and −9.9% in Rapid (463 games). In neither do the games show Black winning more than losing.
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz and 1000-1199 in Rapid.
The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Herford Gambit is extremely sharp: 5.0% of its games are drawn, so 95.0% end with a winner.
Play it below 1000-1199. From there up, the games no longer show it paying. Where the line sits changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1000-1199 and above, the games no longer show Black coming out ahead with it; below that, they do.
This rests on 3.3K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.