Source Lichess
Black wins at least 17.4 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit keeps Black's wins running +17.4% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 97K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −8.1% | 49.3% | 1.7% | 49.0% | 377 |
| 1000-1199 | −4.3% | 49.2% | 2.3% | 48.5% | 1.1K |
| 1200-1399 | +3.3% | 52.2% | 1.9% | 45.9% | 3.1K |
| 1400-1599 | +14.5% | 57.1% | 2.0% | 40.9% | 9.8K |
| 1600-1799 | +17.1% | 57.8% | 2.5% | 39.7% | 24K |
| 1800-1999 | +20.0% | 58.9% | 3.2% | 38.0% | 29K |
| 2000-2199 | +18.0% | 57.8% | 3.5% | 38.7% | 21K |
| 2200-2499 | +11.8% | 54.6% | 4.4% | 41.0% | 8.2K |
| 2500+ | +6.7% | 54.1% | 6.1% | 39.9% | 486 |
At some ratings. Black comes out ahead at 1200+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 57.5% of King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit games, draws 3.0% and loses 39.5%. That rests on 97K games from Lichess.
1800-1999. There Black wins at least 20.0 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
About the same. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +17.5% in Blitz (61K games) and +18.2% in Rapid (12K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz and 1000-1199 in Rapid. In Classical, Black comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit is extremely sharp: 3.0% of its games are drawn, so 97.0% end with a winner.
At 1200+, where Black comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1200+, Black still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 97K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.