Source Lichess
Black wins at least 10.0 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation keeps Black's wins running +10.0% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 330K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +4.8% | 52.6% | 2.0% | 45.4% | 4.9K |
| 1000-1199 | +10.3% | 54.7% | 2.1% | 43.2% | 16K |
| 1200-1399 | +12.3% | 55.4% | 2.4% | 42.2% | 33K |
| 1400-1599 | +13.8% | 55.8% | 2.8% | 41.3% | 55K |
| 1600-1799 | +11.6% | 54.5% | 3.2% | 42.3% | 76K |
| 1800-1999 | +8.2% | 52.5% | 3.8% | 43.7% | 74K |
| 2000-2199 | +4.9% | 50.7% | 4.3% | 45.0% | 48K |
| 2200-2499 | +2.3% | 49.2% | 5.1% | 45.8% | 21K |
| 2500+ | +1.6% | 49.4% | 5.6% | 45.0% | 3.4K |
The games never stop proving it. Black comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
Black wins 53.4% of Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation games, draws 3.4% and loses 43.2%. That rests on 330K games from Lichess.
1400-1599. There Black wins at least 13.8 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Rapid. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +8.2% in Blitz (170K games) and +10.8% in Rapid (62K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 2000-2199 in Classical. In Bullet, Black comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation is extremely sharp: 3.4% of its games are drawn, so 96.6% end with a winner.
Play it. Black comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
This one is hard to meet at every level. As White, develop fast, castle early, trade pieces, and do not get greedy with the extra material. If sharp positions are not your game, decline it.
This rests on 330K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.