Source Lichess
Black wins at least 9.2 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit keeps Black's wins running +9.2% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 549K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −6.7% | 45.7% | 2.7% | 51.6% | 53K |
| 1000-1199 | +7.0% | 52.6% | 2.4% | 45.0% | 84K |
| 1200-1399 | +11.7% | 54.9% | 2.5% | 42.7% | 116K |
| 1400-1599 | +11.7% | 54.8% | 2.5% | 42.6% | 120K |
| 1600-1799 | +11.7% | 54.7% | 2.7% | 42.5% | 93K |
| 1800-1999 | +9.2% | 53.4% | 3.2% | 43.4% | 56K |
| 2000-2199 | +9.2% | 53.4% | 3.5% | 43.1% | 22K |
| 2200-2499 | +9.0% | 53.8% | 3.7% | 42.5% | 5.1K |
| 2500+ | +4.4% | 53.1% | 5.0% | 41.9% | 570 |
At some ratings. Black comes out ahead at 1000+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying.
Black wins 53.4% of Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit games, draws 2.7% and loses 44.0%. That rests on 549K games from Lichess.
1200-1399. There Black wins at least 11.7 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +9.9% in Blitz (262K games) and +5.1% in Rapid (150K games).
No. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 0-999 in Classical.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit is extremely sharp: 2.7% of its games are drawn, so 97.3% end with a winner.
At 1000+, where Black comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1000+, Black still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 549K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.