Source Lichess
Black wins at least 6.1 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fegatello Attack, Leonhardt Variation keeps Black's wins running +6.1% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 521 Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1599 | +17.4% | 64.7% | 5.9% | 29.4% | 75 |
| 1600-1799 | −8.9% | 49.8% | 5.7% | 44.5% | 130 |
| 1800-1999 | −4.7% | 52.9% | 3.1% | 44.0% | 145 |
| 2000-2199 | −22.6% | 44.9% | 5.4% | 49.7% | 82 |
1600-1799 is where the games stop proving it. Below that, Black comes out ahead; from there up, the evidence no longer shows it.
Black wins 54.6% of Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fegatello Attack, Leonhardt Variation games, draws 3.9% and loses 41.4%. That rests on 521 games from Lichess.
1400-1599. There Black wins at least 17.4 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +2.9% in Blitz (285 games) and −4.8% in Rapid (114 games).
Of Bullet, Blitz, Rapid and Classical, only Blitz has enough games to read by rating. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 1600-1799 in Blitz.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fegatello Attack, Leonhardt Variation is extremely sharp: 3.9% of its games are drawn, so 96.1% end with a winner.
Play it below 1600-1799. From there up, the games no longer show it paying.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1600-1799 and above, the games no longer show Black coming out ahead with it; below that, they do.
This rests on 521 games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.