Source Lichess
Black isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, French Defense: Marshall Gambit keeps Black's wins running −5.9% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 436K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −4.4% | 46.6% | 3.6% | 49.8% | 20K |
| 1000-1199 | −4.5% | 46.6% | 3.1% | 50.3% | 43K |
| 1200-1399 | −6.7% | 45.4% | 3.1% | 51.5% | 69K |
| 1400-1599 | −7.1% | 45.1% | 3.3% | 51.7% | 87K |
| 1600-1799 | −9.0% | 43.9% | 3.7% | 52.3% | 86K |
| 1800-1999 | −7.3% | 44.7% | 3.9% | 51.4% | 67K |
| 2000-2199 | −4.1% | 46.3% | 4.2% | 49.6% | 38K |
| 2200-2499 | −0.3% | 48.1% | 4.5% | 47.4% | 21K |
| 2500+ | +3.2% | 50.2% | 5.4% | 44.4% | 3.8K |
At some ratings. Black comes out ahead at 2500+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
Black wins 45.4% of French Defense: Marshall Gambit games, draws 3.6% and loses 51.0%. That rests on 436K games from Lichess.
2500+. There Black wins at least 3.2 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −7.6% in Blitz (205K games) and −9.5% in Rapid (95K games). In neither do the games show Black winning more than losing.
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 1000-1199 in Classical.
The French Defense: Marshall Gambit is extremely sharp: 3.6% of its games are drawn, so 96.4% end with a winner.
At 2500+, where Black comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 2500+, Black still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 436K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.