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Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit

77K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.6%Based on 77K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
52.0%2.5%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit
Analyzen=77K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.5%

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.6%), based on 77K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.5 · Trap factor: +10.1 · n=77K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 23.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (2,741 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (7,216 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.2% win rate (13,861 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.1% win rate (19,402 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.4% win rate (18,329 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.0% win rate (10,833 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (3,574 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (1,097 games)
  • 2500+: 36.3% win rate (44 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (63%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.2% win rate (314 games)
  • Bullet: 54.4% win rate (30,840 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (36,109 games)
  • Rapid: 48.2% win rate (9,509 games)
  • Classical: 39.7% win rate (325 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,079 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (406 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (2,965 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,490 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (733 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (4,631 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (7,475 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.0% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (6,702 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (9,377 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (7,322 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (4,974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (4,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,047 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,290 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (234 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (917 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bishop's Opening
51.7%
Variations (5)
Bishop's Opening: Anderssen Gambit
54.3%
Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense
50.0%
Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit
47.8%
Bishop's Opening: Boden-Kieseritzky Gambit
56.0%
Bishop's Opening: Boden-Kieseritzky Gambit, Lichtenhein Defense
56.3%
Analyze Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 77K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit perform best?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (63.2%) outperforms Classical (39.7%) by 23.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 63.2% (90% CI: 58.7%-67.6%) win rate for white (314 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.9%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.4%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.1%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit has a 39.7% (90% CI: 35.3%-44.1%) win rate for white (325 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit a good opening?

The Bishop's Opening: Warsaw Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.