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Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit

72K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.2%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.5%.

Measured over 72K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 72K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
72K
Best context
52.5% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
43.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.3%
Draws
2.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.6 · Trap factor: +2.7 · 72K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.5% at 0-999, 41.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,434 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (1,602 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,455 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (94 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,688 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (6,288 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,753 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (3,690 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (8,481 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,103 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (185 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,807 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (9,575 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,171 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (3,693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (5,417 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,846 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,646 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,609 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (482 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (651 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.9% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bishop's Opening
51.7%
Variations (5)
Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense
50.0%
Bishop's Opening: Boi Variation
52.7%
Bishop's Opening: Vienna Hybrid
51.3%
Bishop's Opening: Philidor Counterattack
51.1%
Bishop's Opening: Vienna Hybrid, Spielmann Attack
52.2%
Analyze Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit scores 49.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 49.5% — from 72K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
72K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate?

Playing the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit, White wins 47.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 72K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit perform best?

The Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (37K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit?

The Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 41.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 890 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 0.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 330 Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 531 Lichess games.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit a good opening?

The Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense, Greco Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.8% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.