Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit

68K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
5.Qxd4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

58.9%

45%65%
Floor58.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.2%.

Measured over 68K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 68K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
68K
Best context
63.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
54.1% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
27 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +22.6% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 56.5%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (710 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,195 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (607 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (2,868 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,239 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (2,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (4,484 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (2,245 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (2,324 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (5,317 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (2,971 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (2,749 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (6,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (2,945 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (2,705 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (7,433 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (2,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (227 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (2,303 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (6,377 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (1,646 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (1,741 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (2,295 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (487 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (333 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bishop's Opening
51.7%
Variations (5)
Bishop's Opening: Berlin Defense
50.0%
Bishop's Opening: Boi Variation
52.7%
Bishop's Opening: Vienna Hybrid
51.3%
Bishop's Opening: Philidor Counterattack
51.1%
Bishop's Opening: Vienna Hybrid, Spielmann Attack
52.2%
Analyze Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit scores 58.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.6% and 59.2% — from 68K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
68K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate?

Playing the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit, White wins 57.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 68K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit perform best?

The Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 62.5% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 59.9% in Blitz (37K games) against 57.4% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit?

The Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 56.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 55.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 57.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 57.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 57.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 60.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 60.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 35.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.5%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 45.9%, draws 26.5% and loses 27.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 562 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 57.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 58.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 55.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 923 Lichess games.

Is the Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit a good opening?

The Bishop's Opening: Urusov Gambit, Keidansky Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 57.4% of its games and loses 39.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.