Benoni Defense: Modern Variation
476K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.
Measured over 476K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 476K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 476K
- Best context
- 51.0% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 40.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,215 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (1,334 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (205 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (4,940 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (6,031 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,166 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (57 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (11,146 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (18,549 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (3,697 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (61 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (183 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (20,319 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (37,321 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (9,641 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (186 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (31,081 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (55,374 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (15,320 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (670 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (265 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (32,303 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (66,335 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (17,201 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (680 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (199 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (30,399 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (46,715 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (9,883 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (239 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (204 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (24,176 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (18,113 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (2,401 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.6% expected score (31 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (6,858 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (1,392 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.3% expected score (47 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 48.6% — from 476K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 476K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate?
Playing the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 476K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation perform best?
The Benoni Defense: Modern Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.0% (87K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (251K games) against 47.9% in Rapid (60K games).
How sharp is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation?
The Benoni Defense: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 103K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 162K Lichess games.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 251K Lichess games.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.
What is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
Is the Benoni Defense: Modern Variation a good opening?
The Benoni Defense: Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.7% of its games and loses 49.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.