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Analyzer

Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.7%Based on 1.4M games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%3.5%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nd5
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
Analyzen=1.4M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 51.7%), based on 1.4M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 51% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.5% win rate (63,277 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.6% win rate (86,640 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.6% win rate (130,066 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (189,314 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (247,475 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (291,144 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (228,807 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (123,394 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (19,792 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Blitz (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.4% win rate (8,478 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (566,994 games)
  • Blitz: 49.3% win rate (640,459 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (156,839 games)
  • Classical: 49.7% win rate (7,139 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (14,015 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (32,286 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (16,801 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (22,622 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (44,584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (18,766 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (539 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (734 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (39,393 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (66,808 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (21,993 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (63,879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (94,438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (27,682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (1,871 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (2,688 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (90,012 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (121,912 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (30,808 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (2,055 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (2,304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (117,250 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (143,721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (26,681 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (1,188 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (835 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (114,063 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (102,147 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (11,598 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (164 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (309 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (87,618 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (32,945 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (2,490 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (18,142 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (1,618 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (56.4%) outperforms Classical (49.7%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 130K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 189K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 247K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 291K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 229K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 55.5%-57.3%) win rate for white (8.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate for white (567K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.4%) win rate for white (640K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate for white (157K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.7%) win rate for white (7.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.