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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation

1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score59.3%Range (90% confident): 57.3% – 61.3%Based on 1.6K games
0%59.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.3% – 61.3%
Outcome Distribution
56.5%5.5%37.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.a4
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation
Analyzen=1.6K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 59.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.3% and 61.3%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 14% → 56%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.9% win rate (8 games)
  • 1400-1599: 33.3% win rate (21 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (30 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.3% win rate (108 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.8% win rate (330 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.8% win rate (721 games)
  • 2500+: 56.4% win rate (411 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (78%), worst in Blitz (56%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 77.8% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 56.4% win rate (648 games)
  • Blitz: 55.8% win rate (915 games)
  • Rapid: 63.4% win rate (64 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (462 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (287 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.0% expected score (119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 54.5%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 58.8% win rate for white (721 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (63.4%) outperforms Blitz (55.8%) by 7.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 46.5%-62.1%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 330 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 58.8% (90% CI: 55.7%-61.8%) win rate for white, based on 721 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 411 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-59.6%) win rate for white (648 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 53.1%-58.5%) win rate for white (915 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.5% (90% CI: 54.5%-58.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.