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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.1%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.8%Based on 16K games
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%4.5%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.c4
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 48.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.8%), based on 16K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.5% win rate (41 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.6% win rate (133 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.2% win rate (434 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.0% win rate (1,327 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (2,859 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.8% win rate (4,731 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.5% win rate (3,999 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (2,244 games)
  • 2500+: 50.5% win rate (449 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Blitz (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (5,376 games)
  • Blitz: 44.7% win rate (9,144 games)
  • Rapid: 45.1% win rate (1,632 games)
  • Classical: 58.1% win rate (63 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (185 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (210 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (658 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (972 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (275 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (2,893 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (570 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,233 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (2,314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (438 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (796 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (1,266 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (180 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (305 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (134 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 80.5% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.8% win rate for white (2.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.1%) outperforms Rapid (45.1%) by 13.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-61.6%) win rate for white, based on 133 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 40.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 40.8%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 449 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.0%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.6%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.1%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.