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Slav Defense: Exchange Variation

3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.0%Based on 3.2M games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.0%
Outcome Distribution
50.4%5.1%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...cxd5
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=3.2M
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 53.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.0%), based on 3.2M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (40,819 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.9% win rate (103,889 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (212,721 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (365,436 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.6% win rate (567,649 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (719,982 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.7% win rate (604,835 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (461,447 games)
  • 2500+: 53.7% win rate (108,322 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (9,122 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (1,368,405 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (1,453,493 games)
  • Rapid: 49.8% win rate (337,809 games)
  • Classical: 49.6% win rate (16,271 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (15,873 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (18,911 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (5,920 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (39,738 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (48,782 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (14,942 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (529 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (78,950 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (101,806 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (30,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (927 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (1,906 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (124,295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (182,699 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (53,973 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (2,563 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (1,719 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (188,907 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (294,529 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (77,844 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (4,650 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (1,797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (262,828 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (361,127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (88,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (5,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (1,609 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (281,454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (271,067 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (48,698 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (2,007 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (287,592 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (156,003 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (16,252 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (388 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 77.8% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (88,768 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (18,569 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (873 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (36 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Slav Defense
50.8%
Variations (5)
Slav Defense: Alapin Variation
53.2%
Slav Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.7%
Slav Defense: Bonet Gambit
49.7%
Slav Defense: Breyer Variation
50.3%
Slav Defense: Chebanenko Variation
49.1%
Continuations (4)
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Boor Attack
54.0%
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Schallopp Variation
47.9%
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Symmetrical Line
49.4%
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation, Trifunovic Variation
49.7%
Analyze Slav Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (108K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.7%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 104K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 213K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 365K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 568K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 720K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 605K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 461K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 108K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.5%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white (1.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white (338K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.2%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.

Is the Slav Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Slav Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.