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Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation

4.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.8%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 50.9%Based on 4.9K games
0%49.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 50.9%
Outcome Distribution
41.0%17.6%41.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
11...g5
Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation
Analyzen=4.9K
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness82%
Draw Rate17.6%

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 49.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 50.9%), based on 4.9K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 28%

1000
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1600-1799: 33.3% win rate (15 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.5% win rate (76 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.3% win rate (671 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.9% win rate (2,548 games)
  • 2500+: 28.3% win rate (1,557 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in Classical (31%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 41.3% win rate (877 games)
  • Blitz: 41.2% win rate (3,787 games)
  • Rapid: 36.0% win rate (189 games)
  • Classical: 31.4% win rate (16 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599————
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (543 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,086 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (414 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Slav Defense
50.8%
Variations (5)
Slav Defense: Exchange Variation
50.4%
Slav Defense: Three Knights Variation
51.1%
Slav Defense: Modern Line
51.9%
Slav Defense: Quiet Variation, Pin Defense
49.6%
Slav Defense: Slav Gambit, Alekhine Attack
52.8%
Analyze Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation perform best?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 45.8% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.6%) outperforms Rapid (43.8%) by 0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a sharpness score of 82.4 (moderately decisive), meaning 82.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 671 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.2%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 32.2% (90% CI: 30.3%-34.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 51 moves with a 39.4% draw rate.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.8%-47.3%) win rate for white (877 Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.2%.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 40.6% (90% CI: 39.2%-41.9%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.3%.

What is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 38.0%-49.8%) win rate for white (189 Lichess games). Draw rate is 20.2%.

Is the Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation a good opening?

The Slav Defense: Czech Variation, Carlsbad Variation, Morozevich Variation is statistically balanced with a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.