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Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.4%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 55.1%Based on 14K games
0%54.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 55.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%5.3%42.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.g4
Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 54.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 55.1%), based on 14K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 53%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (6 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (30 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (110 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (762 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.8% win rate (3,544 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (7,606 games)
  • 2500+: 52.5% win rate (2,194 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (34%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 53.5% win rate (4,049 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (9,284 games)
  • Rapid: 49.4% win rate (855 games)
  • Classical: 33.8% win rate (65 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399———
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (208 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (465 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (730 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (2,424 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,921 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (5,293 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (378 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (1,146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (2.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.5%) outperforms Classical (33.8%) by 19.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 52.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 110 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 762 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.8%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.2%) win rate for white (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-52.3%) win rate for white (855 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.