212 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit has a 53.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 58.9%), based on 212 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 39%
Best in Blitz (46%), worst in Classical (9%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | — | ||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit has a 41.5% (90% CI: 36.0%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 212 rated games from Lichess.
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 42.4% win rate for white (87 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit has a sharpness score of 75.9 (drawish), meaning 75.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 39.1%-52.2%) win rate for white (153 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.9%.
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit is statistically balanced with a 41.5% (90% CI: 36.0%-47.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.