277 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 41.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 36.6% and 46.3%), based on 277 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 43% → 31%
Best in Blitz (40%), worst in Classical (14%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 38.6% (90% CI: 33.9%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 277 rated games from Lichess.
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.5% win rate for white (130 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 34.0% (90% CI: 26.5%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 37.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 130 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 35.0%-45.3%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation is slightly favors black with a 38.6% (90% CI: 33.9%-43.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.