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Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.7%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 53.3%Based on 18K games
0%52.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.6%8.1%43.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Nc3
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.1%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 53.3%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.4% win rate (55 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.6% win rate (137 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.8% win rate (285 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (570 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.1% win rate (1,334 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.5% win rate (3,226 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (5,696 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.5% win rate (5,333 games)
  • 2500+: 41.6% win rate (1,750 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (49%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (4,054 games)
  • Blitz: 49.1% win rate (12,348 games)
  • Rapid: 46.6% win rate (1,864 games)
  • Classical: 42.4% win rate (113 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (118 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (311 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (598 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (447 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (4,250 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (560 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (3,849 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (841 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (804 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.1%) outperforms Classical (42.4%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a sharpness score of 91.9 (decisive), meaning 91.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 285 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 570 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 41.6% (90% CI: 39.7%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 28.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.5%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.7%-48.5%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 34.9%-50.0%) win rate for white (113 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.7%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation is statistically favors white with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.