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Russian Game: Stafford Gambit

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.8%

40%55%
Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.4M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.4M
Best context
56.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
45.2% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.4% at 0-999, 58.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (174 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (24,785 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (23,391 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (8,689 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (322 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (48,809 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (68,292 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (17,636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (401 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (73,566 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (139,610 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (39,727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (786 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (330 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (82,937 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (185,603 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (70,265 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (2,518 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (215 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (72,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (173,380 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (69,722 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (3,022 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (52,648 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (117,186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (42,777 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (1,540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (29,809 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (46,277 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (14,917 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (351 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (15,117 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (10,586 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (2,533 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,078 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Russian Game
48.9%
Variations (5)
Russian Game: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Russian Game: Italian Variation
50.9%
Russian Game: Modern Attack
51.5%
Russian Game: Damiano Variation
58.3%
Russian Game: Cozio Attack
48.5%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit scores 47.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 47.9% — from 1.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate?

Playing the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit perform best?

The Russian Game: Stafford Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (765K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (266K games).

How sharp is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit?

The Russian Game: Stafford Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 135K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 254K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 342K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 319K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 214K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 44.9%, draws 1.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 402K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 765K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 266K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.

Is the Russian Game: Stafford Gambit a good opening?

The Russian Game: Stafford Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.2% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.