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Russian Game: Italian Variation

2.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.5%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.8M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.8M
Best context
54.7% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
48.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.2% at 0-999, 55.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (474 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (65,897 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (161,198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (109,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (1,047 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (1,146 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (106,337 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (220,228 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (104,843 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (3,183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (1,681 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (132,881 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (289,916 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (121,272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (5,167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (135,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (294,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (129,101 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (7,469 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (614 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (117,747 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (250,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (104,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (5,501 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (185 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (74,956 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (142,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (58,955 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (1,995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (36,677 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (39,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (13,600 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,673 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (5,312 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Russian Game
48.9%
Variations (5)
Russian Game: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Russian Game: Stafford Gambit
46.2%
Russian Game: Modern Attack
51.5%
Russian Game: Damiano Variation
58.3%
Russian Game: Cozio Attack
48.5%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Russian Game: Italian Variation scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.6% — from 2.8M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.8M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate?

Playing the Russian Game: Italian Variation, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 2.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Russian Game: Italian Variation perform best?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.6% (436K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Russian Game: Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Russian Game: Italian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (1.4M games) against 53.4% in Rapid (642K games).

How sharp is the Russian Game: Italian Variation?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 338K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 436K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 551K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 568K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 479K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 278K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 90K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 51.9%, draws 1.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 687K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 642K Lichess games.

What is the Russian Game: Italian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.

Is the Russian Game: Italian Variation a good opening?

The Russian Game: Italian Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.