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Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.1%Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 56.8%Based on 12K games
0%56.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 56.8%
Outcome Distribution
53.2%5.8%41.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Nh4
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 56.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.3% and 56.8%), based on 12K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.5% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 56%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 71.4% win rate (23 games)
  • 1600-1799: 61.3% win rate (76 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (441 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.6% win rate (2,038 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.6% win rate (6,619 games)
  • 2500+: 55.7% win rate (2,895 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 55.8% win rate (3,949 games)
  • Blitz: 52.0% win rate (7,562 games)
  • Rapid: 49.8% win rate (540 games)
  • Classical: 48.2% win rate (41 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399————
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 74.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 68.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (319 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (296 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,597 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (135 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,666 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (4,624 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (308 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (1,869 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (988 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Indian Defense
47.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Indian Defense: Anti-Queen's Indian System
50.1%
Queen's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
42.1%
Queen's Indian Defense: Buerger Variation
55.0%
Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation
49.7%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation
51.1%
Analyze Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.7% win rate for white (2.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.8%) outperforms Rapid (49.8%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 441 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.2%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.5%-57.1%) win rate for white (3.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.0%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-53.3%) win rate for white (540 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Polugaevsky Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.