TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit

248 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score36.6%Range (90% confident): 31.7% – 41.6%Based on 248 games
0%36.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 31.7% – 41.6%
Outcome Distribution
33.1%7.0%59.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.b4
Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit
Analyzen=248
Avg Length26 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.0%

What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit has a 36.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 31.7% and 41.6%), based on 248 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -40.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 32% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200

  • 0-999: 32.4% win rate (139 games)
  • 1000-1199: 30.6% win rate (23 games)
  • 1200-1399: 25.6% win rate (20 games)
  • 1400-1599: 31.1% win rate (29 games)
  • 1600-1799: 38.8% win rate (23 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.8% win rate (10 games)
  • 2000-2199: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 2200-2499: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (43%), worst in Bullet (24%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 24.3% win rate (50 games)
  • Blitz: 36.9% win rate (100 games)
  • Rapid: 33.3% win rate (93 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (3 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199———
2200-2499————
2500+—————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 10.6% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 14.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Portuguese Opening
43.4%
Variations (1)
Portuguese Opening: Portuguese Gambit
41.2%
Analyze Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit win rate?

The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit has a 33.1% (90% CI: 28.3%-38.0%) win rate for white, based on 248 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit perform best?

The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 32.4% win rate for white (139 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (36.9%) outperforms Bullet (24.3%) by 12.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit?

The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.0 (decisive), meaning 93.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit has a 32.4% (90% CI: 26.1%-39.0%) win rate for white, based on 139 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit has a 36.9% (90% CI: 29.2%-44.9%) win rate for white (100 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit a good opening?

The Portuguese Opening: Miguel Gambit is slightly favors black with a 33.1% (90% CI: 28.3%-38.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.