What is the Norwegian Defense expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Norwegian Defense family has a 44.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 42.9% and 45.6%), aggregated from 1 variations and 3.5K Lichess games.
Norwegian Defense
1 variations · 3.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Norwegian Defense leaves White at 44.2% — consider alternatives.
The minimum advantage of -14.3% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.
You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 42.9% – 45.6%Aggregated from 1 variations
0%44.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.9% – 45.6%
ContextOverall · n=3.5K
Outcome Distribution
42.4%3.5%54.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Norwegian Defense
Variations1
Games (Context)3.5K
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate3.5%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 53% → 47%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 52.7% win rate (81 games)
- 1000-1199: 47.6% win rate (153 games)
- 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (280 games)
- 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (319 games)
- 1600-1799: 39.2% win rate (479 games)
- 1800-1999: 41.8% win rate (600 games)
- 2000-2199: 36.9% win rate (834 games)
- 2200-2499: 43.6% win rate (660 games)
- 2500+: 47.4% win rate (122 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Classical (59%), worst in Blitz (41%)
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- Bullet: 45.0% win rate (916 games)
- Blitz: 41.0% win rate (2,105 games)
- Rapid: 43.1% win rate (489 games)
- Classical: 59.0% win rate (18 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (62 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (59 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (114 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (113 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (50 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (74 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (184 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (98 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (250 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (126 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (100 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (410 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (87 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (138 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (597 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (98 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (210 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (421 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (101 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (1)
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Norwegian Defense win rate?
The Norwegian Defense family has a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.1%-43.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 3.5K rated games from Lichess.
How many Norwegian Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 1 Norwegian Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Norwegian Defense perform best?
The Norwegian Defense family performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 49.1% win rate for white (319 games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Norwegian Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (45.0%) outperforms Blitz (41.0%) by 4.0% across all Norwegian Defense variations.
How sharp is the Norwegian Defense?
Norwegian Defense games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Norwegian Defense a good opening family?
The Norwegian Defense family is slightly favors black overall with a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.1%-43.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.