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Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation

156K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%Based on 156K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.6%3.3%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.g4
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation
Analyzen=156K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.4%), based on 156K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.3% win rate (1,527 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.3% win rate (5,065 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.4% win rate (13,257 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.1% win rate (23,441 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (29,267 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (29,069 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.6% win rate (26,226 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.9% win rate (21,612 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (6,666 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.6% win rate (592 games)
  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (96,693 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (50,212 games)
  • Rapid: 50.7% win rate (8,430 games)
  • Classical: 51.1% win rate (203 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (616 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (157 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (2,242 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (2,404 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (407 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (6,390 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (5,913 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (907 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11,608 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (9,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,184 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (60 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (16,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (10,433 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (174 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (17,504 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (9,691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,658 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (17,660 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (7,905 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (577 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (131 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (17,864 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,384 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (6,466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Larsen Attack
51.1%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Classical Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation
50.6%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: English Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Graz Attack
49.4%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Indian Variation
49.2%
Analyze Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 156K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation perform best?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.1%) outperforms Classical (51.1%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.2%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.1%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-53.0%) win rate for white (592 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.4%) win rate for white (97K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate for white (50K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.6%) win rate for white (8.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-56.8%) win rate for white (203 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation a good opening?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Spike Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.