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Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit

9.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 54.2%Based on 9.1K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.4%3.7%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.e4
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit
Analyzen=9.1K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 54.2%), based on 9.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~54%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.9% win rate (94 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.8% win rate (187 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.0% win rate (263 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.9% win rate (883 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (2,032 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (2,549 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.2% win rate (1,945 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.9% win rate (1,030 games)
  • 2500+: 53.4% win rate (95 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (70%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 69.8% win rate (25 games)
  • Bullet: 49.9% win rate (2,563 games)
  • Blitz: 52.3% win rate (5,280 games)
  • Rapid: 50.4% win rate (1,147 games)
  • Classical: 47.3% win rate (63 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (394 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (387 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 84.8% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (628 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (263 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (359 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (1,709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (434 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (706 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (1,060 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (690 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (75 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzo-Larsen Attack
51.1%
Variations (5)
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Classical Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Dutch Variation
50.6%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: English Variation
50.2%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Graz Attack
49.4%
Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Indian Variation
49.2%
Analyze Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit perform best?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.3%) outperforms Classical (47.3%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 187 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 43.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 263 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 883 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.6%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.5%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-52.8%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzo-Larsen Attack: Norfolk Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.