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Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit

6.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 50.4%Based on 6.8K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 50.4%
Outcome Distribution
47.8%3.2%49.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.f4
Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit
Analyzen=6.8K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 49.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 50.4%), based on 6.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +0.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.2% win rate (381 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.6% win rate (537 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (658 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (783 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (941 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (1,310 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (1,275 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.8% win rate (789 games)
  • 2500+: 44.7% win rate (78 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (50%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.1% win rate (56 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (2,299 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (3,705 games)
  • Rapid: 50.0% win rate (664 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (28 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (109 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (196 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (167 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (222 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (330 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (102 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 35.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (258 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (393 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (337 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (456 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (754 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (831 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (347 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (405 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Mexican Defense
50.2%
Analyze Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate?

The Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit perform best?

The Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (537 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (39.1%) by 10.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit?

The Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 381 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 537 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 658 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 44.9%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 783 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 941 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 789 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.4%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-53.1%) win rate for white (664 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit a good opening?

The Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.