Mexican Defense

2 variations · 447K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

2...Nc6

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

48.0%

40%55%

Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 447K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

46.0%3.9%50.1%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 447K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #35 of 62
Games in this context: 447K
Best context: 52.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context: 34.4% at 1400-1599 Classical
Variations measured: 2
Average game length: 33 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Mexican DefenseBest here

1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 Nc6

Floor 47.8% · 441K games

47.9%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.6% at 0-999, 43.3% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (49 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (8,888 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (15,984 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (6,253 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (52 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (132 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (15,023 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (21,122 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (8,192 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (147 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (313 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (20,017 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (25,357 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (8,634 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (410 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (683 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (21,684 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (28,391 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (8,148 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (565 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (656 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (24,859 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (30,636 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (7,170 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (418 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (303 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (24,951 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (36,860 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (6,363 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (321 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (74 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (21,716 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (39,801 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (4,980 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (199 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (20,751 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (26,770 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,184 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (46 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (4,939 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (3,102 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (105 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

2 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit6.8K games

Balanced50.6%Floor 49.6%

Mexican Defense441K games

Losing47.9%Floor 47.8%

Analyze Mexican Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Mexican Defense family scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 48.1% — from 447K Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 447K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Mexican Defense win rate?

Across the Mexican Defense's 2 variations, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 447K rated games from Lichess.

How many Mexican Defense variations are there?

2 Mexican Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Mexican Defense perform best?

The Mexican Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (67K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Mexican Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Mexican Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (228K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (52K games).

How sharp is the Mexican Defense?

Mexican Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Mexican Defense a good opening family?

The Mexican Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.0% and loses 50.1%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.