Source Lichess
White isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit keeps White's wins running −3.2% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 6.8K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −9.5% | 48.2% | 2.5% | 49.3% | 381 |
| 1000-1199 | +0.5% | 52.6% | 2.3% | 45.0% | 537 |
| 1200-1399 | −6.9% | 48.1% | 3.3% | 48.6% | 658 |
| 1400-1599 | −7.6% | 47.9% | 2.6% | 49.5% | 783 |
| 1600-1799 | −11.9% | 45.4% | 2.7% | 51.9% | 941 |
| 1800-1999 | −7.5% | 46.5% | 3.9% | 49.5% | 1.3K |
| 2000-2199 | −3.9% | 48.4% | 4.0% | 47.7% | 1.3K |
| 2200-2499 | −7.1% | 47.8% | 3.2% | 49.0% | 789 |
| 2500+ | −22.0% | 44.7% | 6.9% | 48.4% | 78 |
At some ratings. White comes out ahead at 1000-1199; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying.
White wins 47.8% of Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit games, draws 3.2% and loses 49.0%. That rests on 6.8K games from Lichess.
1000-1199. There White wins at least 0.5 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
About the same. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −2.7% in Blitz (3.7K games) and −2.6% in Rapid (664 games). In neither do the games show White winning more than losing.
No. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz and 0-999 in Rapid.
The Mexican Defense: Horsefly Gambit is extremely sharp: 3.2% of its games are drawn, so 96.8% end with a winner.
At 1000-1199, where White comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1000-1199, White still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 6.8K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.