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King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses

1.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.6%Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.7%Based on 1.6M games
0%49.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.7%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%4.2%48.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nf3
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses
Analyzen=1.6M
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 49.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 49.7%), based on 1.6M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.2% win rate (14,184 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (53,955 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (129,620 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (244,522 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (364,211 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.0% win rate (412,482 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (267,065 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (127,613 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (25,034 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.1% win rate (1,553 games)
  • Bullet: 47.3% win rate (590,457 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (825,288 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (213,243 games)
  • Classical: 47.9% win rate (8,145 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (6,247 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (6,607 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,311 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (22,240 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (25,682 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (5,923 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (49,226 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (63,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (16,833 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (309 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (447 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (79,951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (127,090 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (35,691 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (1,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (110,080 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (195,025 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (56,103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (2,572 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (266 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (130,187 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (218,268 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (60,884 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (2,877 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (104,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (132,510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (29,474 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (836 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (69,685 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (50,975 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (6,769 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (155 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (18,720 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (6,053 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (255 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (25K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.1%) by -1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 130K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 245K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 364K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 412K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 267K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.4%) win rate for white (590K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.7%) win rate for white (825K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.7%) win rate for white (213K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Rare Defenses is statistically balanced with a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.