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Guatemala Defense

1 variations · 199K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · Overall

52.6%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.

Measured over 199K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 199K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — under 500 games here
Games in this context
199K
Best context
61.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
48.2% at 0-999 Bullet
Variations measured
1
Average game length
35 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall · limited data

Not enough games here yet to rank what comes next. Pick another rating or time control above.

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.3% at 0-999, 59.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,218 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (3,849 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,584 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (3,549 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (5,300 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (1,449 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (5,277 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (9,721 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,721 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (162 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (10,568 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (12,236 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (4,164 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (190 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (21,212 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (14,175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (2,880 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (141 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (35,405 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (11,977 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (1,628 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 74.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (29,870 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (3,331 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (12,019 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (516 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 76.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (1,514 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (46 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Guatemala Defense199K games
52.6%Floor 52.4%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Guatemala Defense family scores 52.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.8% — from 199K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
199K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Guatemala Defense win rate?

Across the Guatemala Defense's 1 variations, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 199K rated games from Lichess.

How many Guatemala Defense variations are there?

1 Guatemala Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Guatemala Defense perform best?

The Guatemala Defense family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.0% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Guatemala Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Guatemala Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.8% in Blitz (61K games) against 56.4% in Rapid (15K games).

How sharp is the Guatemala Defense?

Guatemala Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Guatemala Defense a good opening family?

The Guatemala Defense family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.6% and loses 45.5%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.