What is the Guatemala Defense expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Guatemala Defense family has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.8%), aggregated from 1 variations and 199K Lichess games.
Guatemala Defense
1 variations · 199K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Guatemala Defense gives White a 52.6% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 4.8%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.8%Aggregated from 1 variations
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.8%
ContextOverall · n=199K
Outcome Distribution
50.6%3.9%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Guatemala Defense
Variations1
Games (Context)199K
Avg Length35 moves
Draw Rate3.9%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 51% → 57%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 50.6% win rate (7,674 games)
- 1000-1199: 51.7% win rate (10,390 games)
- 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (17,928 games)
- 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (27,269 games)
- 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (38,598 games)
- 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (49,093 games)
- 2000-2199: 50.8% win rate (33,524 games)
- 2200-2499: 52.2% win rate (12,573 games)
- 2500+: 56.6% win rate (1,560 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Classical (59%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 46.6% win rate (571 games)
- Bullet: 49.2% win rate (121,632 games)
- Blitz: 52.5% win rate (61,151 games)
- Rapid: 53.7% win rate (14,761 games)
- Classical: 59.0% win rate (494 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,218 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (3,849 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,584 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (3,549 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (5,300 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (1,449 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (56 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (5,277 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (9,721 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,721 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (105 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (162 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (10,568 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (12,236 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (4,164 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (139 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (190 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (21,212 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (14,175 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (2,880 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (141 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (35,405 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (11,977 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (1,628 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 74.7% expected score (33 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (29,870 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (3,331 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (308 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (12,019 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (516 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 76.3% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (1,514 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (46 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (1)
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Guatemala Defense win rate?
The Guatemala Defense family has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 199K rated games from Lichess.
How many Guatemala Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 1 Guatemala Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Guatemala Defense perform best?
The Guatemala Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.6% win rate for white (1.6K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Guatemala Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Classical (59.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.6%) by 12.4% across all Guatemala Defense variations.
How sharp is the Guatemala Defense?
Guatemala Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Guatemala Defense a good opening family?
The Guatemala Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.