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Grob Opening

18 variations · 6.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grob Opening is balanced for White at 51.6% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.6%Aggregated from 18 variations
0%51.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 51.6%
ContextOverall · n=6.7M
Outcome Distribution
49.9%3.3%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
1.g4
Grob Opening
Variations18
Games (Context)6.7M
Avg Length32 moves
Draw Rate3.3%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Fritz GambitTop Pick
1.g4 d5 2.Bg2 Bxg4 3.c4
Min adv +18.8% · n=597K
59.5%
#2Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack
1.g4 e5 2.Bg2 d5 3.c4
Min adv +10.3% · n=450K
55.3%
#3Grob Opening: Grob Gambit
1.g4 d5 2.Bg2
Min adv +2.5% · n=679K
51.4%
#4Grob Opening: Spike Attack
1.g4 d5 2.Bg2 c6 3.g5
Min adv +2.1% · n=91K
51.4%
#5Grob Opening
1.g4
Min adv +0.2% · n=4.2M
50.1%
#6Grob Opening: Zilbermints Gambit
1.g4 d5 2.e4 dxe4 3.Nc3
Min adv -1.5% · n=1.7K
51.3%
#7Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Basman Gambit
1.g4 d5 2.Bg2 h5 3.gxh5
Min adv -1.6% · n=2.4K
50.9%
#8Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Richter-Grob Gambit
1.g4 d5 2.Bg2 c6 3.c4 dxc4 4.b3
Min adv -4.8% · n=3.0K
49.1%
#9Grob Opening: Zilbermints Gambit, Zilbermints-Hartlaub Gambit
1.g4 d5 2.e4 dxe4 3.Nc3 e5 4.d3
Min adv -9.5% · n=201
51.0%
#10Grob Opening: Double Grob, Coca-Cola Gambit
1.g4 g5 2.f4
Min adv -29.1% · n=1.0K
37.9%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Grob Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Grob Opening family has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 51.6%), aggregated from 18 variations and 6.7M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.2% win rate (426,148 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.4% win rate (520,802 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.8% win rate (810,161 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (1,173,610 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.9% win rate (1,397,045 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.9% win rate (1,305,382 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (645,478 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.3% win rate (341,438 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (46,444 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.1% win rate (61,084 games)
  • Bullet: 51.1% win rate (2,617,088 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (3,220,149 games)
  • Rapid: 47.1% win rate (737,550 games)
  • Classical: 42.0% win rate (30,637 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.6% expected score (998 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (97,220 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (236,683 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (89,803 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (4,856 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (137,331 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (284,250 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (91,240 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (3,125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (252,793 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (423,227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (122,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (5,237 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (18,900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (400,392 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (602,545 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (140,061 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11,712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (16,807 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (511,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (732,366 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (131,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (4,577 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (9,960 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (552,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (632,066 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (107,785 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (3,232 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (2,174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (337,434 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (256,142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (48,475 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (678 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (285,286 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (49,524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (5,895 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (42,958 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (3,346 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.5% expected score (96 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (18)

1
Grob Opening: Romford Countergambit6.4K games
66.2%
2
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Fritz Gambit597K games
59.5%
3
Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack450K games
55.3%
Grob Opening: Double Grob58K games
53.4%
Grob Opening: Alessi Gambit26K games
52.6%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit Declined392K games
51.5%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit679K games
51.4%
Grob Opening: Spike Attack91K games
51.4%
Grob Opening4.2M games
50.1%
Grob Opening: Keene Defense79K games
50.4%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Fritz Gambit, Romford Countergambit5.6K games
50.7%
Grob Opening: Zilbermints Gambit1.7K games
51.3%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Basman Gambit2.4K games
50.9%
Grob Opening: London Defense30K games
49.0%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Richter-Grob Gambit3.0K games
49.1%
Grob Opening: Zilbermints Gambit, Zilbermints-Hartlaub Gambit201 games
51.0%
Grob Opening: Keene Defense, Main Line602 games
47.9%
Grob Opening: Double Grob, Coca-Cola Gambit1.0K games
37.9%
Analyze Grob Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grob Opening win rate?

The Grob Opening family has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 18 variations and 6.7M rated games from Lichess.

How many Grob Opening variations are there?

This analysis covers 18 Grob Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Grob Opening perform best?

The Grob Opening family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (46K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Grob Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (42.0%) by 9.1% across all Grob Opening variations.

How sharp is the Grob Opening?

Grob Opening games are 96.7% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Grob Opening a good opening family?

The Grob Opening family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 18 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.