Source Lichess
White wins at least 8.8 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Miles Variation keeps White's wins running +8.8% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 25K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −15.7% | 50.4% | 3.9% | 45.7% | 63 |
| 1000-1199 | +5.7% | 56.1% | 2.1% | 41.8% | 361 |
| 1200-1399 | −2.3% | 50.0% | 2.8% | 47.2% | 1.1K |
| 1400-1599 | +4.8% | 52.6% | 2.9% | 44.4% | 2.4K |
| 1600-1799 | +1.4% | 50.2% | 3.6% | 46.1% | 3.9K |
| 1800-1999 | +0.7% | 49.9% | 3.7% | 46.5% | 3.8K |
| 2000-2199 | +6.7% | 52.1% | 4.9% | 43.0% | 4.7K |
| 2200-2499 | +13.5% | 55.4% | 4.8% | 39.8% | 5.8K |
| 2500+ | +17.9% | 57.9% | 5.4% | 36.7% | 2.5K |
At some ratings. White comes out ahead at 1000-1199 and 1400+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying.
White wins 52.8% of Queen's Gambit Declined: Miles Variation games, draws 4.2% and loses 43.0%. That rests on 25K games from Lichess.
2500+. There White wins at least 17.9 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +6.0% in Blitz (13K games) and +1.1% in Rapid (2.0K games).
No. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 1200-1399 in Bullet, 1200-1399 in Blitz and 1200-1399 in Rapid.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Miles Variation is extremely sharp: 4.2% of its games are drawn, so 95.8% end with a winner.
At 1000-1199 and 1400+, where White comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1000-1199 and 1400+, White still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 25K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.