Source Lichess
White wins at least 13.3 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Two Knights Defense, Blockade Line keeps White's wins running +13.3% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 14K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1200-1399 | +4.1% | 56.4% | 2.7% | 40.9% | 205 |
| 1400-1599 | +10.1% | 57.5% | 2.1% | 40.4% | 556 |
| 1600-1799 | +11.2% | 56.0% | 3.9% | 40.1% | 1.2K |
| 1800-1999 | +16.5% | 57.8% | 4.5% | 37.8% | 2.1K |
| 2000-2199 | +11.9% | 54.5% | 6.3% | 39.3% | 2.4K |
| 2200-2499 | +9.2% | 51.8% | 8.1% | 40.1% | 4.0K |
| 2500+ | +11.4% | 35.4% | 43.1% | 21.5% | 3.4K |
The games never stop proving it. White comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
White wins 49.8% of Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Two Knights Defense, Blockade Line games, draws 15.0% and loses 35.1%. That rests on 14K games from Lichess.
1800-1999. There White wins at least 16.5 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Rapid. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +12.6% in Blitz (8.0K games) and +17.0% in Rapid (1.3K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 1200-1399 in Bullet, 1200-1399 in Blitz and 1600-1799 in Rapid. In Classical, White comes out ahead at 2500+, the only rating with enough games.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Two Knights Defense, Blockade Line is sharp: 15.0% of its games are drawn, so 85.0% end with a winner.
Play it. White comes out ahead at every rating we can see.
This one is hard to meet at every level. As Black, develop fast, castle early, trade pieces, and do not get greedy with the extra material. If sharp positions are not your game, decline it.
This rests on 14K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.