Source Lichess
White wins at least 3.8% more often than loses
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation gives White a +3.8% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is playable but marginal.
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +1.5% | 50.0% | 2.7% | 47.3% | 19K |
| 1000-1199 | +2.4% | 50.3% | 2.6% | 47.1% | 46K |
| 1200-1399 | +1.5% | 49.7% | 2.7% | 47.6% | 82K |
| 1400-1599 | +2.4% | 49.9% | 3.2% | 47.0% | 118K |
| 1600-1799 | +3.4% | 50.2% | 3.4% | 46.4% | 139K |
| 1800-1999 | +5.0% | 50.7% | 4.0% | 45.3% | 134K |
| 2000-2199 | +4.0% | 50.1% | 4.4% | 45.5% | 79K |
| 2200-2499 | +5.2% | 50.1% | 5.8% | 44.1% | 40K |
| 2500+ | +7.8% | 51.4% | 7.2% | 41.4% | 6.1K |
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has no overall breakpoint in Lichess data, meaning White wins more than loses even at the highest rating brackets across all time controls. This is a statistically sound gambit at all levels analyzed.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for White overall, with a 3.6% draw rate and 46.2% loss rate. This is based on 664K games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+, where White has a minimum advantage of +7.8%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 7.8 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Classical (+7.6% edge) outperforms UltraBullet (+-0.1% edge) by 7.7 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: 0-999, Blitz: Never, Rapid: Never, Classical: 1000-1199. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation is extremely sharp with only 3.6% draws—96.4% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation is viable at all rating levels in Lichess data. White maintains a statistical edge throughout. It's an excellent choice if you enjoy sharp, initiative-based play.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation is statistically challenging to defend at all levels. As Black, focus on quick development, early castling, and piece trades. Don't get greedy with extra material. Consider declining the gambit or finding a transposition if you're uncomfortable with sharp positions.
This analysis is based on 664K games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.