Source Lichess
White wins at least 4.4 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Leningrad keeps White's wins running +4.4% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 1.1K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1599 | −8.4% | 54.5% | 0.6% | 44.9% | 82 |
| 1600-1799 | −6.7% | 51.4% | 3.3% | 45.3% | 165 |
| 1800-1999 | −0.5% | 53.2% | 2.3% | 44.5% | 323 |
| 2000-2199 | −3.6% | 50.8% | 3.8% | 45.4% | 330 |
| 2200-2499 | −3.2% | 51.5% | 7.2% | 41.3% | 145 |
Not shown to be. White does not come out ahead at any rating we can see: its best Edge at worst, at 1800-1999, is −0.5%.
White wins 53.0% of Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Leningrad games, draws 3.3% and loses 43.7%. That rests on 1.1K games from Lichess.
No rating in these games shows it paying. White's Edge at worst is highest at 1800-1999: −0.5%, how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident.
Blitz. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +1.6% in Blitz (728 games) and −2.7% in Rapid (148 games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 1800-1999 in Bullet and 1400-1599 in Blitz.
The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Leningrad is extremely sharp: 3.3% of its games are drawn, so 96.7% end with a winner.
Not for the results: White does not come out ahead at any rating we can see.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. White does not come out ahead with it at any rating we can see.
This rests on 1.1K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.